Forecasting the Import and Export Values in Turkish Livestock Sector with ATA Analysis
Yazarlar (7)
Dr. Öğr. Üyesi Mehmet KÜÇÜKOFLAZ
Kafkas Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Prof. Dr. Erol AYDIN
Kafkas Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Arş. Gör. Can İsmail ZAMAN
Kafkas Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Savaş Sarıözkan
Erciyes Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Dr. Öğr. Üyesi Merve AYYILDIZ AKIN
Kafkas Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Hanife Taylan Selamlar
Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Seyrani Demir
Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Makale Türü |
Özgün Makale
(SSCI, AHCI, SCI, SCI-Exp dergilerinde yayınlanan tam makale)
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| Dergi Adı | Ankara Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi (Q3) | ||
| Dergi ISSN | 1300-0861 Wos Dergi Scopus Dergi | ||
| Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler | SCI-Expanded | ||
| Makale Dili | İngilizce | Basım Tarihi | 01-2025 |
| Cilt / Sayı / Sayfa | 72 / 2 / 191–200 | DOI | 10.33988/auvfd.1495550 |
| Makale Linki | https://doi.org/10.33988/auvfd.1495550 | ||
| Özet |
| Unlike traditional time-series methods, the ATA analysis method developed in recent years dynamically adjusts the smoothing parameters according to the sample size. This study aimed to estimate the export and import values of live animals and livestock products for the next five years (2024-2028) using the ATA method, based on the values from the previous years (2014-2023) in Türkiye. The study material consisted of export and import values (in dollars) of the "live animals,” "meat/meat products," "milk/milk products + eggs" and "fish and other seafood" categories in Türkiye between 2014 and 2023. The Turkish Statistical Institute's records, divided into the aforementioned categories and presented in four annual quarters, provided the study data. The ATA method, which is a simple, highly accurate, and automatic forecasting method, was used for data modeling. According to the study findings, it was estimated that the import values of "live animals," "meat/meat products," "milk/milk products + eggs," and "fish and other seafood" may be a total of approximately $1.4 billion, $172 million, $157 million, and $300 million, respectively, whereas the export value of the same products may reach $113 million, $1.3 billion, $866 million, and $2 billion, respectively, in 2028. In conclusion, the ATA analysis method can be used to reveal a perspective in the coming years in terms of foreign trade in the livestock sector, but it should be updated constantly. It has been concluded that such studies can guide policymakers in the country in developing necessary strategies in foreign trade for the future. |
| Anahtar Kelimeler |
| Animal | ATA analysis | Export | & Idot;mport | Livestock product |
BM Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
| Atıf Sayıları | |
| TRDizin | 1 |